2013 QB review, early 2014 rankings
By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com
It started in early September with a seven-touchdown performance from Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, continued through Week 9 when Philadelphia Eagles surprise Nick Foles matched the record-tying feat and ended with a productive final week that included New Orleans Saints star Drew Brees contributing five touchdown passes and winning many fantasy owners their leagues. Put simply, the 2013 season featured standout passer performances from start to finish -- as never seen to this level prior -- and it wasn't just Manning's heroics making their mark.
So with the 2013 regular season firmly in the rearview mirror and many fantasy owners already thinking about the 2014 campaign, it's time for our annual position recaps and early 2014 rankings. We begin at the quarterback position.
<OFFER>Quarterback MVP: The incredible Manning set NFL records for passing touchdowns and passing yards and won the overall fantasy scoring title by 58 points. His 406 fantasy points just missed LaDainian Tomlinson's all-time mark of 410 (standard) points, which he surely would have reached had he played the second half of the finale. In fact, Manning could have sat Weeks 16 and 17, and still his season total would not have been surpassed. That's pretty ridiculous. Sure, others presented more value based on a lack of draft-day love, notably Foles, who went from ignored backup to starter and actually led all of fantasy in standard scoring from Week 9 on. Philip Rivers of the San Diego Chargers resurrected his career by finishing sixth in quarterback scoring, despite being selected after 22 other passers. Ultimately Manning found his way on to more fantasy championship teams than any other quarterback, which is hardly stunning news. As colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft notes, records were broken by Manning and the cumulative quarterback position this season, and it's quite the progressive theme. However, as I'll discuss in the running back recap/preview next week, the splendid quarterback play doesn't change my draft-day routine.
Quarterback LVP: The lone quarterback chosen among the top 10 overall in ESPN average live drafts prior to Week 1 was actually Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers, and while he did little wrong in the games he did play in, averaging 20 fantasy points per contest, he did miss half the season because of a broken collarbone. However, one could argue the quarterback depth was so terrific this season that even a Rodgers owner could survive and make it to December. Tom Brady owners might feel a bit different, though. The top-20 choice in ESPN ADP -- fourth among quarterbacks -- ended up being outscored for the season by 12 other quarterbacks, including Foles, who played six fewer full games. Those whining about Atlanta Falcons disappointment Matt Ryan, who lost wide receiver Julio Jones before midseason, knew to find another option. But Brady owners probably stuck with him regardless. When tight end Rob Gronkowski was active, Brady was fantastic; otherwise, he wasn't, and reputation likely forced many to trust him unilaterally. After all, Brady outscored Ryan by just two points. While several others disappointed fantasy owners, notably in December by not playing or performing poorly (Matthew Stafford, Robert Griffin III), Brady's mediocre play was actually a bigger problem.
[h=4]My (early) top 20 for 2014[/h]First tier (mid/late Round 2)
1. Drew Brees, Saints
2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
3. Peyton Manning, Broncos
Second tier (Round 3)
4. Cam Newton, Panthers
5. Andrew Luck, Colts
Third tier (Rounds 4-7)
6. Tom Brady, Patriots
7. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
8. Matthew Stafford, Lions
9. Matt Ryan, Falcons
10. Nick Foles, Eagles
11. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers
Fourth tier (Rounds 8-10)
12. Philip Rivers, Chargers
13. Tony Romo, Cowboys
14. Robert Griffin III, Redskins
Fifth tier (Rounds 11 and 12)
15. Andy Dalton, Bengals
16. Jay Cutler, Bears
Sixth tier (Round 13 on)
17. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
18. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
19. EJ Manuel, Bills
20. Teddy Bridgewater, Texans?
Biggest surprise: Michael Vick exploded for 59 fantasy points the first two weeks of the season in Philly's new yet erratic (early on, at least) offense, but honestly, who thought he'd make it to December on two feet? Foles stepped up with 29 fantasy points in Week 6, but was miserable the following week at home against the Cowboys, throwing for 80 yards before leaving due to a concussion. That figured to be it for him. Then came Week 9, and Foles had to play. Vick wasn't ready, and rookie Matt Barkley, while healthy, really wasn't ready. Seven touchdown passes later, Foles forced fantasy owners to notice. And even then, there certainly wasn't unwavering support from Eagles personnel that one bad half of play wouldn't push Foles back to the bench in favor of Vick. So what happens? Foles accounts for 30 total touchdowns (27 passing, 3 rushing) and a mere two interceptions from then on and leads an Eagles team that started 3-5 to a 10-6 mark and an NFC East title.
Biggest misconception: Oh, there are myriad choices here. Generally we discuss how Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo remains a solid fantasy contributor, in stark contrast to the real-life perception. By the way, that's still the case. He's never drafted among the top 10, but always finishes there. This past season he famously missed Week 17 and still was the No. 10 quarterback in fantasy scoring for the season. Alas, let's get back to Peyton Manning. Fantasy owners definitely tend to ignore or at least downgrade older players. But Manning looked pretty good at 37, eh? At the same time, the 2012 class of rookie passers might have led some to believe immediate success was pending for the 2013 class, led by the Buffalo Bills' EJ Manuel and the New York Jets' Geno Smith. Well, that didn't really happen. Ultimately, age really isn't a factor at quarterback, as options young and old can and do thrive, and others disappoint. My advice is don't take age into account as a critical factor at this position. At running back, on the other hand …
Youngster to watch: A year ago in this space, I highlighted the Oakland Raiders' Terrelle Pryor, and he not only won the Raiders' starting job, but he averaged 15 points per game in his first seven outings. He also rushed for 576 yards despite playing basically nine games, just nine yards fewer than the overall quarterback leader in rushing yards (the Carolina Panthers' Cam Newton, with 585). Anyway, of those that made their debut in 2013, the Bills' EJ Manuel, Jets' Geno Smith and Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Mike Glennon each had moments of fantasy relevance. But none of them brings the pure upside of Griffin, who figures to finally be 100 percent recovered from the serious knee injury he suffered a calendar year ago and will have a new coaching staff to mold him. Remember, Griffin tied Peyton Manning for 2012 season scoring. He can be a top-5 fantasy quarterback, so don't write him off. Also keep an eye on the (likely) quarterback new Houston Texans coach Bill O'Brien and the team selects with the first overall draft pick. Teddy Bridgewater could be an instant star with the proper supporting cast, and I'd call Arian Foster and Andre Johnson a proper supporting cast!
Veteran to watch: With the Bears' Jay Cutler locked up contract-wise until he turns 65 -- OK, that's a slight exaggeration -- it's reasonable to expect top-10 quarterback performance from him, considering his surrounding weapons in running back Matt Forte, wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery and tight end Martellus Bennett, as well as an offensive-minded coach in Marc Trestman. Only the Broncos scored more points this past season. Say what you will about Cutler's ability to lead the team into January, but so what if he's a lot like Romo or the Cincinnati Bengals' Andy Dalton, who also can't win in January? Fantasy owners can still reap the benefits.
Keeper notes: With quarterback depth being so prevalent for standard 10- and 12-team formats, certainly in comparison to the wreck that is the running back position, there's little reason to force an average quarterback into keeper status. Take the Bengals' Dalton, for example. Yeah, he's good, finishing fifth in season scoring this season, but he wasn't that much more productive than about 10 other fellows, and the downside of having an Eli Manning-type season without warning, with 25-plus interceptions, is clearly there. Peyton Manning should regress in 2014, but not enough to ignore him. Andrew Luck, still adding value with his legs when many thought his rookie campaign was a fluke, belongs in the keeper class now. I'd say, for standard formats, anyone in my top two tiers is a reasonable keep. One more thing: In 2012, seven quarterbacks posted at least 290 standard fantasy points. In 2013, only Manning and Brees did. It's cyclical. Keep your decent running backs.
What to watch in 2014 drafts: Hey, the top fellows are awesome, but there will again be no hint of a quarterback in my first round for the upcoming campaign. Running back is simply too shallow, and while surprises like the Broncos' Knowshon Moreno pop up there, it's folly to depend on that. I'd consider taking Brees, Rodgers and Manning in my second round, but will let others actually do it. I generally wait a good, long time to fill this position, considering Luck and Romo slipped to the seventh round in 2013 drafts. Romo will again, and so will Atlanta's Ryan and several others I like. Frankly, I might be the last to fill my quarterback spot, but one of the first to grab a backup.
It will be interesting to see which quarterbacks end up as top-10 draft picks next season. Ryan and Griffin should slip, but there's no reason they can't play like they did in 2012. Each season we not only see quarterback scoring rise, but the depth of options increases. To me that means taking a chance with your quarterback backup makes more sense. Nothing against AFC North options like Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco, but I don't see top-5 upside. If you secure a top quarterback, make No. 2 an upside pick. Griffin could go in the fourth round or the 10th of many leagues. He seems like the wild card.
[h=3]Five noteworthy QB stats of 2013[/h]1. C'mon, 5,477 passing yards and 55 touchdown passes?! Are you kidding? Must we say more? Another stat that sticks out is Manning's minus-31 rushing yards this season. OK, so he's not Cam Newton. The next-worst rushing total among the top 40 quarterbacks was Carson Palmer with (plus-)three yards. Still, Manning scored 406 fantasy points; the No. 3 quarterback had 282.
2. Then there's the other Manning. New York's Eli tossed 27 interceptions, the most in the league since some guy named Brett Favre in 2005. In 2012, no quarterback tossed as many as 20 interceptions, but in 2013 five fellows turned the trick. It's a passing league, and sometimes it's not all positive. Or in the case of Dalton, who tossed 20 picks, it's both positive and negative.
3. Why is Brees my top quarterback for 2014? Honestly, who is more consistent in terms of production and health at such a remarkable level? Brees threw for 5,162 yards and now owns half of the eight 5,000-yard passing seasons in history, including the past three seasons. Manning, Brady, Stafford and Dan Marino have each achieved this once.
4. Then again, Brees wasn't such a dominant performer in road contests, falling short of 20 standard points in all eight games. In his eight home games, however, Brees totaled 226 points, or one point more than the Miami Dolphins' Ryan Tannehill, who was 16th overall in fantasy scoring, achieved all season. Wow.
5. Brees led in quarterback fantasy points in five of the 17 weeks, matching the total from Manning (3) and Foles (2) combined. The other quarterbacks to lead a week were Rodgers, Romo, Newton, Luck, Roethlisberger, Rivers and McCown. Brady finished among the top 5 passers in only three weeks!
Coming soon: running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, oh my! Best of luck in your playoff pools!
By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com
It started in early September with a seven-touchdown performance from Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, continued through Week 9 when Philadelphia Eagles surprise Nick Foles matched the record-tying feat and ended with a productive final week that included New Orleans Saints star Drew Brees contributing five touchdown passes and winning many fantasy owners their leagues. Put simply, the 2013 season featured standout passer performances from start to finish -- as never seen to this level prior -- and it wasn't just Manning's heroics making their mark.
So with the 2013 regular season firmly in the rearview mirror and many fantasy owners already thinking about the 2014 campaign, it's time for our annual position recaps and early 2014 rankings. We begin at the quarterback position.
<OFFER>Quarterback MVP: The incredible Manning set NFL records for passing touchdowns and passing yards and won the overall fantasy scoring title by 58 points. His 406 fantasy points just missed LaDainian Tomlinson's all-time mark of 410 (standard) points, which he surely would have reached had he played the second half of the finale. In fact, Manning could have sat Weeks 16 and 17, and still his season total would not have been surpassed. That's pretty ridiculous. Sure, others presented more value based on a lack of draft-day love, notably Foles, who went from ignored backup to starter and actually led all of fantasy in standard scoring from Week 9 on. Philip Rivers of the San Diego Chargers resurrected his career by finishing sixth in quarterback scoring, despite being selected after 22 other passers. Ultimately Manning found his way on to more fantasy championship teams than any other quarterback, which is hardly stunning news. As colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft notes, records were broken by Manning and the cumulative quarterback position this season, and it's quite the progressive theme. However, as I'll discuss in the running back recap/preview next week, the splendid quarterback play doesn't change my draft-day routine.
Quarterback LVP: The lone quarterback chosen among the top 10 overall in ESPN average live drafts prior to Week 1 was actually Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers, and while he did little wrong in the games he did play in, averaging 20 fantasy points per contest, he did miss half the season because of a broken collarbone. However, one could argue the quarterback depth was so terrific this season that even a Rodgers owner could survive and make it to December. Tom Brady owners might feel a bit different, though. The top-20 choice in ESPN ADP -- fourth among quarterbacks -- ended up being outscored for the season by 12 other quarterbacks, including Foles, who played six fewer full games. Those whining about Atlanta Falcons disappointment Matt Ryan, who lost wide receiver Julio Jones before midseason, knew to find another option. But Brady owners probably stuck with him regardless. When tight end Rob Gronkowski was active, Brady was fantastic; otherwise, he wasn't, and reputation likely forced many to trust him unilaterally. After all, Brady outscored Ryan by just two points. While several others disappointed fantasy owners, notably in December by not playing or performing poorly (Matthew Stafford, Robert Griffin III), Brady's mediocre play was actually a bigger problem.
[h=4]My (early) top 20 for 2014[/h]First tier (mid/late Round 2)
1. Drew Brees, Saints
2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
3. Peyton Manning, Broncos
Second tier (Round 3)
4. Cam Newton, Panthers
5. Andrew Luck, Colts
Third tier (Rounds 4-7)
6. Tom Brady, Patriots
7. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
8. Matthew Stafford, Lions
9. Matt Ryan, Falcons
10. Nick Foles, Eagles
11. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers
Fourth tier (Rounds 8-10)
12. Philip Rivers, Chargers
13. Tony Romo, Cowboys
14. Robert Griffin III, Redskins
Fifth tier (Rounds 11 and 12)
15. Andy Dalton, Bengals
16. Jay Cutler, Bears
Sixth tier (Round 13 on)
17. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
18. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
19. EJ Manuel, Bills
20. Teddy Bridgewater, Texans?
Biggest surprise: Michael Vick exploded for 59 fantasy points the first two weeks of the season in Philly's new yet erratic (early on, at least) offense, but honestly, who thought he'd make it to December on two feet? Foles stepped up with 29 fantasy points in Week 6, but was miserable the following week at home against the Cowboys, throwing for 80 yards before leaving due to a concussion. That figured to be it for him. Then came Week 9, and Foles had to play. Vick wasn't ready, and rookie Matt Barkley, while healthy, really wasn't ready. Seven touchdown passes later, Foles forced fantasy owners to notice. And even then, there certainly wasn't unwavering support from Eagles personnel that one bad half of play wouldn't push Foles back to the bench in favor of Vick. So what happens? Foles accounts for 30 total touchdowns (27 passing, 3 rushing) and a mere two interceptions from then on and leads an Eagles team that started 3-5 to a 10-6 mark and an NFC East title.
Biggest misconception: Oh, there are myriad choices here. Generally we discuss how Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo remains a solid fantasy contributor, in stark contrast to the real-life perception. By the way, that's still the case. He's never drafted among the top 10, but always finishes there. This past season he famously missed Week 17 and still was the No. 10 quarterback in fantasy scoring for the season. Alas, let's get back to Peyton Manning. Fantasy owners definitely tend to ignore or at least downgrade older players. But Manning looked pretty good at 37, eh? At the same time, the 2012 class of rookie passers might have led some to believe immediate success was pending for the 2013 class, led by the Buffalo Bills' EJ Manuel and the New York Jets' Geno Smith. Well, that didn't really happen. Ultimately, age really isn't a factor at quarterback, as options young and old can and do thrive, and others disappoint. My advice is don't take age into account as a critical factor at this position. At running back, on the other hand …
Youngster to watch: A year ago in this space, I highlighted the Oakland Raiders' Terrelle Pryor, and he not only won the Raiders' starting job, but he averaged 15 points per game in his first seven outings. He also rushed for 576 yards despite playing basically nine games, just nine yards fewer than the overall quarterback leader in rushing yards (the Carolina Panthers' Cam Newton, with 585). Anyway, of those that made their debut in 2013, the Bills' EJ Manuel, Jets' Geno Smith and Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Mike Glennon each had moments of fantasy relevance. But none of them brings the pure upside of Griffin, who figures to finally be 100 percent recovered from the serious knee injury he suffered a calendar year ago and will have a new coaching staff to mold him. Remember, Griffin tied Peyton Manning for 2012 season scoring. He can be a top-5 fantasy quarterback, so don't write him off. Also keep an eye on the (likely) quarterback new Houston Texans coach Bill O'Brien and the team selects with the first overall draft pick. Teddy Bridgewater could be an instant star with the proper supporting cast, and I'd call Arian Foster and Andre Johnson a proper supporting cast!
Veteran to watch: With the Bears' Jay Cutler locked up contract-wise until he turns 65 -- OK, that's a slight exaggeration -- it's reasonable to expect top-10 quarterback performance from him, considering his surrounding weapons in running back Matt Forte, wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery and tight end Martellus Bennett, as well as an offensive-minded coach in Marc Trestman. Only the Broncos scored more points this past season. Say what you will about Cutler's ability to lead the team into January, but so what if he's a lot like Romo or the Cincinnati Bengals' Andy Dalton, who also can't win in January? Fantasy owners can still reap the benefits.
Keeper notes: With quarterback depth being so prevalent for standard 10- and 12-team formats, certainly in comparison to the wreck that is the running back position, there's little reason to force an average quarterback into keeper status. Take the Bengals' Dalton, for example. Yeah, he's good, finishing fifth in season scoring this season, but he wasn't that much more productive than about 10 other fellows, and the downside of having an Eli Manning-type season without warning, with 25-plus interceptions, is clearly there. Peyton Manning should regress in 2014, but not enough to ignore him. Andrew Luck, still adding value with his legs when many thought his rookie campaign was a fluke, belongs in the keeper class now. I'd say, for standard formats, anyone in my top two tiers is a reasonable keep. One more thing: In 2012, seven quarterbacks posted at least 290 standard fantasy points. In 2013, only Manning and Brees did. It's cyclical. Keep your decent running backs.
What to watch in 2014 drafts: Hey, the top fellows are awesome, but there will again be no hint of a quarterback in my first round for the upcoming campaign. Running back is simply too shallow, and while surprises like the Broncos' Knowshon Moreno pop up there, it's folly to depend on that. I'd consider taking Brees, Rodgers and Manning in my second round, but will let others actually do it. I generally wait a good, long time to fill this position, considering Luck and Romo slipped to the seventh round in 2013 drafts. Romo will again, and so will Atlanta's Ryan and several others I like. Frankly, I might be the last to fill my quarterback spot, but one of the first to grab a backup.
It will be interesting to see which quarterbacks end up as top-10 draft picks next season. Ryan and Griffin should slip, but there's no reason they can't play like they did in 2012. Each season we not only see quarterback scoring rise, but the depth of options increases. To me that means taking a chance with your quarterback backup makes more sense. Nothing against AFC North options like Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco, but I don't see top-5 upside. If you secure a top quarterback, make No. 2 an upside pick. Griffin could go in the fourth round or the 10th of many leagues. He seems like the wild card.
[h=3]Five noteworthy QB stats of 2013[/h]1. C'mon, 5,477 passing yards and 55 touchdown passes?! Are you kidding? Must we say more? Another stat that sticks out is Manning's minus-31 rushing yards this season. OK, so he's not Cam Newton. The next-worst rushing total among the top 40 quarterbacks was Carson Palmer with (plus-)three yards. Still, Manning scored 406 fantasy points; the No. 3 quarterback had 282.
2. Then there's the other Manning. New York's Eli tossed 27 interceptions, the most in the league since some guy named Brett Favre in 2005. In 2012, no quarterback tossed as many as 20 interceptions, but in 2013 five fellows turned the trick. It's a passing league, and sometimes it's not all positive. Or in the case of Dalton, who tossed 20 picks, it's both positive and negative.
3. Why is Brees my top quarterback for 2014? Honestly, who is more consistent in terms of production and health at such a remarkable level? Brees threw for 5,162 yards and now owns half of the eight 5,000-yard passing seasons in history, including the past three seasons. Manning, Brady, Stafford and Dan Marino have each achieved this once.
4. Then again, Brees wasn't such a dominant performer in road contests, falling short of 20 standard points in all eight games. In his eight home games, however, Brees totaled 226 points, or one point more than the Miami Dolphins' Ryan Tannehill, who was 16th overall in fantasy scoring, achieved all season. Wow.
5. Brees led in quarterback fantasy points in five of the 17 weeks, matching the total from Manning (3) and Foles (2) combined. The other quarterbacks to lead a week were Rodgers, Romo, Newton, Luck, Roethlisberger, Rivers and McCown. Brady finished among the top 5 passers in only three weeks!
Coming soon: running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, oh my! Best of luck in your playoff pools!
